A Change Is Coming

RIO GRANDE VALLEY:

A very breezy Saturday, as the pressure gradient has tightened in S. TX.  Gusty south and southeasterly winds will begin to calm down a bit tonight and tomorrow.  Here were today’s high and low temperatures, followed by highest gust wind speed recorded:

Brownsville:  78/62, G33 mph
Harlingen:  77/59, G36 mph
McAllen:  78/61, G31 mph

Tonight will be cloudy, with a few breaks here or there.  There is a slight chance of a light shower/drizzle as a mid-level trough pushes through central and south TX.  Most of the moderate to heavy rain will be north of Corpus Christi and in the Houston area.  Tonight’s lows will be in the lower-to-mid 60s.  Winds will be out of the southeast between 5-10 mph.  Patchy fog will develop after midnight.

(1/30/2011): Sunday will be another warm one in the RGV.  Afternoon highs will be in the lower 80s.  There will be some patchy fog in the morning, but will lift after 7 am.  Morning clouds will give way to mostly sunny skies by the afternoon hours.  Winds will be out of the southeast, nearly calm throughout the day.  Sunday night will be mostly clear, with east-northeast winds turning south-southeast around 5-8 mph.  Patchy fog will develop after midnight.

(1/31/2011): Another breezy day in store for Monday.  A surface ridge in the northern Gulf of Mexico, along with a surface low pressure in west TX will tighten up the pressure gradient for S. TX, and thus be windy. Winds will be out of the southeast between 15-20 mph, with higher gusts.  Afternoon highs will reach the lower-to-mid 80s.  A mid-level trough will enhance lift over the Valley, which will produce clouds and even a chance of a shower or two Monday evening/Tuesday morning.  Monday night will be cloudy, with a slight chance (20%) of a shower or thunderstorm.  Lows will be in the lower 60s, with winds out of the southeast at 10-15 mph.

(2/1/2011): A change is in store for Tuesday and Tuesday night.  A cold front will be moving through the Valley late afternoon/early evening Tuesday.  A temperature difference won’t be felt until Tuesday night.  Therefore, afternoon highs will reach the lower 80s.  With the trough aloft and the approaching cold front, there is a 30% chance of a shower or thundershower forming along the front, otherwise skies will be cloudy.  Winds will be breezy with the cold front’s arrival.  Southeast winds will shift to north-northwest Tuesday around noon.  Tuesday night will be cloudy and chilly; lows will be in the mid-to-upper 40s.

Edinburg’s 3-day Forecast:

(1/30/2011): 84/61…Clouds decreasing…Winds SE near calm then increasing to 5-8 during the evening
(1/31/2011): 81/60…Increasing clouds and cloudy by noon…Winds SE at 15-20, G30 mph…20% chance of a shower during the evening.
(2/1/2011): 80/46…Cloudy…30% chance of a drizzle…Winds SE then turning NNW at 10-15 mph, G20+ mph

REST OF THE NATION:

….Ohio Valley….

An upper-level shortwave is causing light snow to fall over IL, IN and OH at this time.  The shortwave will be exiting the area by tonight and diminish snowfall chances.

….Northwest….

Snow continues to fall in MT from pacific moisture and Arctic air from Canada.  Winter storm warnings have been issued for northwest and north-central MT, where 8″ to 12″ of snow is expected to fall in the mountainous areas.  This system is forecast to move east and south into the Dakotas by early tomorrow and spread toward MN and the northern Plains by Sunday evening.

….Central Plains…..

The Arctic front affecting MT right now will combine with an upper-level trough Monday night into Tuesday, that will produce a lot of snow for the Central Plains and Rocky Mtns.  Timing and strength of the the upper-level trough is still uncertain at this time.  However, 2/3 of the U.S. will be affected by this storm system in one way or another.  Temperatures will be well below normal for many areas around the U.S.

Below is a map of the United States and what I believe will play out on Tuesday around noon CST.  This may be a bit off, but overall, this is what will pan out (most likely).

Snapshot of what I think things will look like Tuesday around noon. This may change later on, but this is what I'm going with for now.

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About Brian

University of Oklahoma graduate with a degree in Meteorology. Follow me on Twitter: @WeatherInformer
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