Snow/Sleet For The Valley??

RIO GRANDE VALLEY:

A very comfortable day in the RGV, except for gusty winds from the south-south east towards the end of the day.  Cloud cover is beginning to thicken as a mid-level trough enters the area.  Here were today’s high and low temperatures, with highest wind gust speeds:

Brownsville:  79/63, G25 mph
Harlingen:  80/65, G30 mph
McAllen:  81/65, G28 mph

Tonight, there will be an increase of clouds, turning cloudy after midnight.  Lows will be warm, in the mid 60s for much of the Valley.  Winds will be out of the southeast at 10-20 mph.

(2/1/2011): Tuesday will start off warm, with high temperatures reaching the lower-to-mid 70s by noon. There are actually two cold fronts that will be pushing through the RGV tomorrow.  The first cold front, more like a dry line, will be arriving Tuesday morning, increasing the winds to 20-25 mph for much of the day.  A Red Flag Warning is in effect from 9 am to 6 pm Tuesday. This is a very dry front, that will be associated with a mid-level trough, which will decrease dew points significantly and will not be producing any precipitation for the RGV.  The second front will be the arctic cold front and will be felt for the next 5 days or so.  This cold front will be moving through the Valley late tomorrow afternoon/early evening.  Tuesday night lows will be in the lower-to-mid 40s under partly cloudy skies.  Winds will be from the north at 10-15 mph, making it seem much colder.  Please try to stay warm!

(2/2/2011): Wednesday will be cold! Morning temperatures will be in the lower-to-mid 30s.  Wind chill temperatures will range from the 20s to 30s.  Afternoon high temperatures won’t warm up much, as temperatures will be in the mid-to-upper 40s around the Valley.  Skies will be sunny, with winds out of the north at 10-15 mph.  Wednesday night, I expect the National Weather Service to issue out a Freeze Warning for the entire Valley by tomorrow evening or during the day on Wednesday.  Partly cloudy skies will turn to mostly cloudy skies after midnight, with lows in the mid-to-upper 20s in the upper Valley and lower 30s near the coast.  North winds will be breezy at 10-15 mph, making wind chill value range from 13-23 degrees in the upper-Valley.  Make sure you keep pets in, keep plants covered, and leave the tap running so that pipes won’t burst.

(2/3/2011): Thursday will be very interesting and colder for sure! Thursday morning’s temperatures will be very cold, in the mid-to-upper 20s! Northerly winds will make temperatures feel in the teens! Afternoon highs will be in the mid-to-upper 30s around the Valley.  Skies will be mostly cloudy in the morning, then cloudy after noon.  A surface low is forecast to develop in the western Gulf of Mexico Thursday afternoon, that might bring cold rain/freezing drizzle/sleet/snow for the lower and mid Valley Thursday late afternoon/early evening and continue into Friday morning.  The best chance (30-40%) for frozen precipitation will be around midnight-3 am Friday morning.  More on this to come!  Thursday night’s lows will be in the upper 20s/lower 30s, with northerly winds at 10-15 mph.

 

Figure 1. Current Watches and Warnings (1/31/2011) issued by the National Weather Service Brownsville

Edinburg 3-day Forecast:

(2/1/2011): 74/43…Mostly sunny…Windy SE to N winds at 15-20 mph
(2/2/2011): 44/31…Sunny…Winds N at 10-15 mph
(2/3/2011): 37/25…Partly cloudy to Mostly cloudy…20% chance of freezing drizzle/sleet (day)…40% chance of sleet/snow (evening)..Winds N at 10-15 mph.

REST OF THE NATION:

There is so much to talk about as far the weather around the nation.  I will try to cover most areas both currently and for the winter storm this week..

….Midwest….

Light to moderate snow has been falling from KS to WI to IN from upper-level frontogenesis.  Strong high pressure in Canada has already affected temperatures as far south as the TX panhandle and S.W. NM. Currently, the 32°F line (freezing line) goes through southern IN and IL.  This is where a mix of sleet, freezing rain and snow is falling.  More snow and ice are expected from a major and deep surface low that will be moving in on Tuesday night and Wednesday.  Snowfall totals may, and probably will be over a foot.  Parts of S.E. MO, S. IN, S. IL, and central OH are in for a major ice storm from this low pressure system.  Precipitation type will all be dependent on the location of the low, upper-air temperatures, and the surface freezing line.

Figure 2. Current RADAR and frontal positions of Central Plains. Yellow lines are lines of constant temperature. Bold Yellow line is the 32 degree line.

….Southern Plains….

Starting around midnight tonight, N. TX and S. OK will begin to see a mix of freezing rain and sleet from this surface low that will begin to have better organization.   Storms are beginning to develop in north-central TX at this time from a digging mid-level trough, and are in for severe weather tonight.  The chance for severe weather will spread eastward into E. TX, LA, MS and AL tomorrow as the low pressure becomes more developed (Figures 3 & 4).

 

Figure 3. Current severe outlook from Storm Prediction Center (SPC) for tonight. North-Central TX is under a slight risk of severe storms. This means: the probability values represent the chance of severe weather within about 25 miles of a point, which is about the size of a major metropolitan area.

Figure 4. SPC's day 2 severe weather outlook.

Figure 4. SPC's day 2 severe weather outlook.

Snowfall amounts will differ, depending on location of the surface low.  For right now, S.W. OK will be expecting 4-6″ of snow, central OK will be expecting 6-10″, and N.E. OK will be expecting 8-14″ of snow.  N. TX  will be expecting mainly a mixture of wintry precipitation. Blizzard warnings have been issued by the National Weather Service.  Anywhere in the warning area could receive the heaviest amounts of snow.  Figure 5, below, shows the current watches, warnings, and advisories currently in effect.

Ohio Valley & Northeast…

This winter storm system is expected to be in the Ohio Valley by early Wednesday morning and in the Northeast by late Wednesday morning and Wednesday afternoon.  Parts of N. IN and N. IL could receive up to 2 feet of snow or more!  Most of NY is forecast to get a foot to 2 feet of snow from this storm. Yes, this means more snow for the Northeast.  I’ll be able to go more in depth as the storm gets closer to them.

Below are all the current watches, warnings, and advisories for the United States. What a mess!

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About Brian

University of Oklahoma graduate with a degree in Meteorology. Follow me on Twitter: @WeatherInformer
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