RIO GRANDE VALLEY FORECAST (ISSUED 5/15/2011)

One very important factor I believe in being a meteorologist is to admit a busted forecast, when wrong.  That’s exactly what happened in my forecast that I issued out a couple of days ago.  I said our rain chances would end by Friday/Saturday morning.  Here it is on a Sunday, and there are still showers and thunderstorms popping up on radar in the Rio Grande Valley.  The cause of these showers and storms is an upper-level shortwave trough over Mexico, influenced by the mountains.  Their movement is east-southeast.  Figure one shows the general location of  genesis of where these storms are forming.

Figure 1. Showers and thunderstorms form over Mexico, then move ESE/SE into the U.S. from an upper-level shortwave trough.

 These storms did spawned a severe thunderstorm warning for much of Zapata County and parts of Starr County.   These storms are still producing heavy rainfall, up to 1.5″/hour and small hail.  Most of the rainfall will stay in the 4 counties north of the RGV, however, portions of northern Starr and Hidalgo, as well as Willacy County may see a shot at some decent amounts of rainfall depending if these storms hold together.

For the rest of today, expect a mix of sun and clouds after these storms and showers pass.  Clouds are expected to break a little for tonight.  Temperatures will be in the middle to upper 60s, with low humidity.

Edinburg’s 3-day Forecast:

Figure 2. Edinburg's 3-Day Forecast Issued on 5/15/2011


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About Brian

University of Oklahoma graduate with a degree in Meteorology. Follow me on Twitter: @WeatherInformer
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