RGV FORECAST (6/7/2011)

Rio Grande Valley

Not much change from the previous forecast.  There is some moderate rain falling in extreme southwest Kenedy County/extreme northeast Hidalgo County as a result of onshore flow from the Gulf of Mexico.  This thunderstorm is forecast to weaken as the sun sets.  For the rest of the week, expect clear to partly cloudy skies with afternoon temperatures in the middle to upper 90s in the middle and upper Valley.  Temperatures will be near or just below 90 near the coast.  There is little to no chance of rain for the next 7 days for the RGV.

Figure 1. Thunderstorm in extreme northern Hidgalo County around 4:45 PM CDT 6/7/2011

Figure 2. Edinburg's 3-Day Forecast. Issued 6/7/2011

Rest Of The Nation

An upper-level ridge is dominating the central and eastern CONUS right now.  With the exception of the Gulf coast region and the Ohio/West Virginia area, stable conditions are controlling this area.  Very unstable conditions along the Mississippi Valley are producing thunderstorms from onshore flow from the Gulf of Mexico.  Gulf moisture will continue filtering through this area over the next few days, but the upper-level ridging will persist for much of the southern and eastern United States.

Being summer time, the jet stream is beginning to shift toward the north, into the northern Plains/Great Lakes.  There is a mid-level low at 700mb over Montana, with an associated surface low pressure in the Dakotas/eastern Montana.  As a result, showers and thunderstorms continue to develop in this region.  This surface low will continue to move east-northeast and eventually into Canada.

Figure 3. 18Z 6/7/2011 CONUS surface analysis with fronts.

 

About Brian

University of Oklahoma graduate with a degree in Meteorology. Follow me on Twitter: @WeatherInformer
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