SAME OL’ STORY (6/11/2011)

**PLEASE SEE MY “TERMS & CONCEPTS” PAGE FOR DEFINITIONS AND MORE**

Rio Grande Valley

…General Forecast Discussion…

Ridge of high pressure continues to dominate the Rio Grade Valley, producing a stable and dry environment.  Though southeasterly winds might turn out of the east for a couple of hours each day, 500mb ridging over Mexico will act as a cap from development of the sea-breeze or any type of precipitation.  However, I can’t rule out a slight possibility that a shower or thunderstorm will develop as a result of the sea-breeze, over the next 5-7 days.  Rainfall amounts will be minimal if anything does develop, though.   This 500mb high will remain stationary over the next 84 hours, keeping the RGV forecast pretty consistent aloft.  Winds at the surface will remain on the breezy side out of the southeast throughout the week, gusting into the 20-30 mph range.  It looks like there is no relief in afternoon temperatures, as mostly sunny to party cloudy skies will keep temperatures in the middle to upper 90s in most areas around the Valley and in the upper 80s near the coast through the weekend and into next week.

Edinburg’s Forecast

Figure 1. Edinburg's 3-Day Forecast. Literally no change in the next 3 days

Rest of the Nation

Currently, there are a couple troughs impacting the CONUS.  One trough is evident in the western United States and Plains region.  The big impact of severe weather is where the upper-level jet is located: Colorado/New Mexico/Kansas/panhandle of Texas/western Oklahoma.  This trough will be pushing east and lifting slightly over the next 2 to 3 days, mostly likely causing severe weather for the Northern & Central Plains, as well as the Midwest.

The other trough is visible at 500mb over the Great Lakes region.  Models have this shortwave trough deepening, developing into a closed low and moving over the Northeast states.  Low pressure at the surface will help aid in precipitation.  Heavy rainfall is possible in the next 24-48 hours in this area.

Figure 2. 18Z 6/11/2011 Objective surface map with fronts provided by HPC.

Figure 3. 12Z 6/11/2011 500mb map. Isoheights are in solid black lines, green shadings represent relative humidity(%), dashed blue lines are isotherms (Celsius)

About Brian

University of Oklahoma graduate with a degree in Meteorology. Follow me on Twitter: @WeatherInformer
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