Invest 95, Better Organized (6/28/2011)

Written at 1:40pm CDT

*Please see my Tropics page for up to date satellite images and an outlook from the National Hurricane Center*

Figure 1. Infrared satellite image of Invest 95 at 17:15 UTC 6/28/2011

Invest 95 has become better organized over the past 24 hours and is continuing to gain strength as the hours go by.  As of right now, its movement is still west-northwest at around 5-15 mph and is still forecast to strike central Mexico (around Tampico, MX) in the next 48-60 hours.  The National Hurricane Center has now upgraded its percentage of development to 70%.  This means there is a 70% chance that this tropical wave could become a tropical depression or tropical storm within the next 48 hours.  Below are 1-frame images of a few computer forecasting models showing precipitation(in green, blue, purple, orange and red) and mean sea level pressure (MSLP, black lines), center of the low pressure is marked by the red “L”:

North American Model (NAM): 12Z 6/28/2011 run, Valid: 7:00am 6/30/2011

Figure 2. NAM forecasting model

Global Forecast System (GFS):  12Z run 6/28/2011, Valid: 7:00pm 6/30/2011

Figure 3. GFS model output 60 hours out

Euro Model (ECMWF): 00Z 6/28/2011 run, Valid: 1:00pm 6/30/2011

Figure 4. ECMWF model output

Notice that the ECMWF model has the low further north and more organized at landfall than the NAM and GFS models.  It also gives us the Valley the best shot of rain in its forecast.

I will continue to update this storm and might write another blog later tonight if this system become a tropical depression.


About Brian

University of Oklahoma graduate with a degree in Meteorology. Follow me on Twitter: @WeatherInformer
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