Valley Forecast (6/29/2011)

12:30pm CDT

Precipitation Chances:

The Rio Grande Valley is already seeing the effects of Tropical Storm Arlene.  Spotty showers and thunderstorms will continue to move from east to west throughout the day and into the evening hours.  Precipitation should be more scattered later tonight and into Thursday, as this will be the best chance for rain.  Some areas could receive up to 4 inches of rain or more in isolated place.  Most of the Valley  should stay within 1 to 2 inches of rain, if you are lucky.  By Friday and the weekend, I think we will be back to isolated showers and thunderstorms around the area, though it is possible that some areas may receive heavy downpours.  We begin drying out as the 4th of July approaches, but can’t rule out an isolated shower that day either.  So all in all, this is how the next few days look as far as rain chances:

Today: 30-40%
Thursday: 50-60%
Friday: 40-50%
Saturday: 30-40%
Sunday: 20-30%
Monday: 20%

Temperature & Wind:

The good news about rain is the cloud cover we get, blocking the sun from its scorching heat.  Temperatures are actually going to be below normal for this time of year due to the fact that there will be rain and cloud cover.  High temperatures will struggle to reach the lower 90s each day this week, especially if it is raining during peak hours of sun.  The coastal areas will stay in the middle to upper 80s, at least for the remainder of the week.  Temperatures will slowly creepy back up this weekend, into next week.  So, if you like the temperatures now, enjoy them while you can.

Because Tropical Storm Arlene is making landfall well south of the RGV, I’m sure many of you are wondering how windy will it get in south Texas.  The answer is, the winds from Arlene should not affect the RGV at all.  There may be some gusty winds embedded in some storms that do make their way from the bands of Arlene, but they will be short lived.  Expect winds from 10-20 mph from the east/northeast for the remainder of the week and into the weekend.

NATIONAL OUTLOOK

Figure 2. 500mb heights 12Z 6/29/2011

There is a well defined ridge located in the central United States, above.  Stable, dry air are associated with mid-level ridges.  There are a couple of shortwave on the west coast and northeast sections of the U.S.  500mb closed low over northern California is generating precipitation at the surface all the way through Idaho.  This closed low will move east-northeast over the next couple of days, which will create a zonal flow aloft for much of the Pacific Northwest.  Meanwhile, the closed low over eastern Canada is not expected to move much over the next few days.

About Brian

University of Oklahoma graduate with a degree in Meteorology. Follow me on Twitter: @WeatherInformer
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