Another Shot of Rain For The RGV (7/9/2011)

Rio Grande Valley

Figure 1. 300mb map at 1900Z 7/9/2011. Upper-level low located just off the south Texas coast. Upper-level divergence in pink, wind barbs at 300mb.

Short Term Forecast (Sunday-Tuesday)..
There is a weak upper-level low, shown above, that will be making its way toward south Texas over the next few hours.  This upper-level low will weaken the mid-level ridging (around 500mb) enough to produce an enhanced sea breeze event over the next 2-3 days (20-30% chance), during the afternoon/early evening hours.  Because the ridge is so strong, it has capped off any significant chances of rain during the previous few days.  Though this upper-level low will increase rain chances, it will not be a widespread rain event.  Meaning, any rain that does fall in the Valley will be isolated and in a few spots.  It’s safe to say that there is a better chance that you may not see any rain during this time period, but hopefully this isn’t the case.

Otherwise, where and when it’s not raining, expect partly to mostly cloudy skies with highs in the lower to middle 90s, upper 80s near the coast.  Winds will be out of the southeast for the most part between 10-20 mph during the day, calmer during the evening hours.

..Long Range Forecast (Wednesday-Friday)..

Looking ahead in the long range forecast, you can expect mostly sunny skies once the upper-level low exits the area and the mid-level ridging builds back up.  Afternoon highs will be around or just above seasonal average temperatures, in the middle and upper 90s, upper 80s near the coast.  One or two very brief  sea breeze showers are possible each day for the long range, but the chances are very slight and most of the Valley will see plenty of sunshine.

Figure 2. Edinburg's 3-Day forecast issued 7/9/2011

Rest of the Nation

Figure 3. 18Z 7/9/2011 surface observations around the nation with fronts.

Frontal boundary in the southeastern CONUS is causing lots of lift at the surface and drenching the south.  CAPE values range from 2500 J/kg to 5000+ J/kg, which indicates the potential for severe weather to occur today.

Another area worth watching for today is the Central and High Plains.  A rich in moisture lower level jet as well as a surface front supports the threat of severe weather today in this area.  Though tornado threat is relatively low, the potential for severe winds and hail will be the most likely scenario for the day.

About Brian

University of Oklahoma graduate with a degree in Meteorology. Follow me on Twitter: @WeatherInformer
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