RGV Forecast (7/13/2011)

Short Term Forecast (Tonight through Thursday)…

Mid-level ridging continues to dominate over the Valley with little relief from the scotching temperatures in the short term forecast.  Precipitable water (PW) values will be below 2 inches for the next two days, meaning that there probably isn’t enough moisture in the atmosphere to produce a shower or two during the heating of the day.  Most of the showers that do form will be just off the coast of South Padre Island.  Therefore, expect little to no rain. Temperatures will be slightly above normal for this time of year.  Temperatures will range from the lower 90s near the coast to near triple digits in the upper Valley.  Evening lows will be warm and muggy, in the middle and upper 70s.  Cloud cover will be at a minimum during the evening hours and partly cloudy to mostly sunny during the day.  Winds won’t be too bad compared to how they were in March and April, though they will be a bit breezy at times during the afternoon hours.

…Long Range Forecast (Friday through Monday)…

Friday and Saturday will remain hot and dry with minimal chances of rain chances, though a sea breeze shower cannot be ruled out.  As the mid-level ridge continues to build, it will increase temperatures a bit.  Starting Sunday, we will start to see a change in the weather pattern.  The mid-level ridge will weaken and move westward a bit.  Increased tropical moisture will build in from the south and southeast and therefore, increase rain chances Sunday morning and afternoon and into Monday afternoon.  Rain chances will likely be isolated and in the form of an enhanced sea breeze, due to the low level moisture transport and a more easterly component in the winds.  Cloud cover and rain will decrease high temperatures Sunday and Monday.  Winds will be shifting from the southeast towards to the east-southeast.   I will keep you up to date with rain chances in the future.

Edinburg’s 3-Day Forecast

Figure 1. Edinburg's 3-Day Forecast issued 7/13/2011


About Brian

University of Oklahoma graduate with a degree in Meteorology. Follow me on Twitter: @WeatherInformer
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