RGV Forecast (7/21/2011)

Rio Grande Valley

Short Term Forecast (next 36 hours)….

The Rio Grande Valley saw some sprinkles fall today, especially in the eastern Valley.  Most of the RGV should remain dry throughout tonight and as well as tomorrow.  NAM is suggesting light to moderate showers developing tonight and into tomorrow over the upper Valley from a vorticity max in Mexico , but I am skeptical right now about it.   Most of the rain and thunderstorms will remain over the mountains of Mexico.  However, would not be surprised if one or two showers developed tomorrow afternoon across the RGV, with precipitable water values near 2 inches.

Temperatures will continue to be very warm during the evening hours and hot on Friday afternoon.  Afternoon highs could reach the lower 100s in areas of Starr County and western Hidalgo County.  Everyone else will see temperatures in the middle to upper 90s, with the exception of coastal areas.

Cumulus clouds should stick around again tomorrow afternoon and clear out Friday evening.  Winds will remain generally out of the southeast between 10-20 mph.

….Long Term Forecast (Saturday-Tuesday)…

Unfortunately, there is no relief in the long term forecast to break away from these hot, scorching temperatures in South Texas.  Mid-level ridging will continue dominating the area, as well as much of the lower 48, for quite some time to come.  Almost no chance of rain in the upcoming days.  Any precipitation that does form will quickly die almost as fast as it forms.

Temperatures look to be about the same over the next 5 days, with afternoon highs in the middle to upper 90s in the mid Valley and lower 100s in the upper Valley. Cloud cover will try help to keep thing a little cool in the upcoming days, but not much.

Tropics:

Right now, there is nothing to be concerned about as far as the tropical development in or near the Gulf of Mexico. There is a weak wave that the NHC is monitoring right now east of the Windward Islands, but is in an unfavorable area for development right now.  I will keep updating my blog as soon as there is a treat of tropical formation in or near the Gulf of Mexico.

Tropical Storm Bret and Cindy are continuing to move away from the United States, slowly dying out as they both move northeast away from land, into cooler waters.

Figure 1. Tropical wave. Area worth monitoring for the future.

 

Texas Drought (Issued 7/21/2011)

Figure 2. Texas Drought from U.S. Drought Monitor released on 7/21/2011

 


 

About Brian

University of Oklahoma graduate with a degree in Meteorology. Follow me on Twitter: @WeatherInformer
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