Tropical Storm Don (Updated: 10:30pm CDT, 7/28/2011)

*This will most likely be the last update for the day…Will continue updating tomorrow morning*

Watches/Warnings:
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR…
* TEXAS COAST FROM THE MOUTH OF RIO GRANDE TO SAN LUIS PASS

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA…GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.

Here is the latest on TS Don, as of 10:00pm CDT:

LOCATION…24.7N 92.5W
ABOUT 370MI…600 KM SE OF CORPUS CHRISTI TEXAS
ABOUT 325 MI…520 KM ESE OF BROWNSVILLE TEXAS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS…50 MPH…85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT…WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 14 MPH…22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE…998 MB…29.47 INCHES

Figure 1. NHC's projected path of TS Don.

 

As stated in my previous post, Tropical Storm Don has strengthened and is now a moderate to strong tropical storm.  The track will depend on the 500mb ridge, currently located near the Tennessee/North Carolina/Georgia border. It will also depend on the convection that the storm is producing.  The stronger the ridge, the more south the tropical storm will trek.  Here is a look at where the 500mb ridge is located:

Figure 2. 00Z 110729 500mb heights.

 

Water vapor still shows dry air in Don’s path, but not as much as this past afternoon.  Depending on how much dry air is in Don’s path, it will likely make land fall as a tropical storm, with a 15% chance of it becoming a Category 1 hurricane.  Wind shear has also improved throughout the day.  Earlier, wind shear on the northeast side of the storm was preventing any convection to form.  If wind shear continues to be low, there is a greater chance of intensification.

Figure 3. Water Vapor imagery of TS Don. Drier air isn't as present as it once earlier during the day.

 

I still believe the center of the storm will cross the Texas border north of the Rio Grande Valley.  However, because of its strengthening, the RGV will likely see more rain out of this than expected.

Feel free to ask me a question or two if you have any.

Advertisements

About Brian

University of Oklahoma graduate with a degree in Meteorology. Follow me on Twitter: @WeatherInformer
This entry was posted in Weather and tagged , , . Bookmark the permalink.

Leave a Reply

Fill in your details below or click an icon to log in:

WordPress.com Logo

You are commenting using your WordPress.com account. Log Out / Change )

Twitter picture

You are commenting using your Twitter account. Log Out / Change )

Facebook photo

You are commenting using your Facebook account. Log Out / Change )

Google+ photo

You are commenting using your Google+ account. Log Out / Change )

Connecting to %s