Tropical Storm Don (Updated: 5:00pm CDT, 7/28/2011)

Watches/Warnings:
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR…
* TEXAS COAST FROM PORT MANSFIELD TO SAN LUIS PASS

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR…
* TEXAS COAST SOUTH OF PORT MANSFIELD TO THE MOUTH OF THE RIO GRANDE

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA…GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.

Here is the latest on TS Don, as of 4:00pm CDT:

LOCATION…24.9N 91.3W
ABOUT 425 MI…690 KM ESE OF CORPUS CHRISTI TEXAS
ABOUT 395 MI…635 KM E OF BROWNSVILLE TEXAS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS…45 MPH…75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT…NW OR 305 DEGREES AT 16 MPH…26 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE…1005 MB…29.68 INCHES

Figure 1. 18Z 110728 forecast model run for the path of TS Don. A consensus is finally beginning to appear in the models. It should make landfall somewhere between Baffin Bay and San Antonio Bay.

Little change from my last update at 1 pm.

Max sustained winds are still holding at 45 mph (40 knots).  Looking at water vapor imagery, Tropical Storm Don continues to move into drier air.  This and a little bit of shear may be the only things stopping Don from becoming a stronger tropical storm.  Some dynamical computer forecasting models are still having trouble developing this system into a tropical storm, even on their latest runs.  GFS finally recognized this system as a tropical storm on its 12Z run this morning.  CMC, GFS, and UKMET all have this system making landfall a little further south than what the tropical forecast models have.  In fact, most of the dynamical computer models do.

The National Hurricane Center has said in their 4:00pm CDT update discussion that they may have to adjust the forecast track a little further south for their next update. For now, here is their forecast track:

Figure 2. 4pm CDT NHC update on TS Don's forecast track. Visit their site as the will continue to make updates on their track every 3 hours.

National Hurricane Center’s website here.

About Brian

University of Oklahoma graduate with a degree in Meteorology. Follow me on Twitter: @WeatherInformer
This entry was posted in Weather and tagged , . Bookmark the permalink.

Leave a Reply

Fill in your details below or click an icon to log in:

WordPress.com Logo

You are commenting using your WordPress.com account. Log Out / Change )

Twitter picture

You are commenting using your Twitter account. Log Out / Change )

Facebook photo

You are commenting using your Facebook account. Log Out / Change )

Google+ photo

You are commenting using your Google+ account. Log Out / Change )

Connecting to %s