Tropical Storm Don (Updated: 1:30am CDT, 7/29/2011)

Watches/Warnings:

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR
* TEXAS COAST FROM THE MOUTH OF RIO GRANDE TO SAN LUIS PASS

* A TROPICAL STORM WARNING CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING   COUNTIES IN TEXAS:  CAMERON…WILLACY…HIDALGO…STARR…JIM HOGG…BROOKS…KENEDY…MCMULLEN…LIVE OAK…BEE…GOLIAD…VICTORIA…DUVAL…JIM WELLS…KLEBERG…NUECES…SAN PATRICIO…ARANSAS…REFUGIO…CALHOUN…JACKSON…MATAGORDA…BRAZORIA.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA…GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.

Here is the latest on TS Don, as of 1:00am CDT:

LOCATION…25.0N 93.0W
ABOUT 335MI…540 KM SE OF CORPUS CHRISTI TEXAS
ABOUT 285 MI…455 KM ESE OF BROWNSVILLE TEXAS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS…50 MPH…85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT…WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 14 MPH…22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE…1003 MB…29.62 INCHES

Figure 1. NHC's 1am CDT forecast track of Tropical Storm Don.

Tropical Storm Don has now made a shift westward, but has weakened a little bit since my last update.  This westward movement was caused by the mid-level ridge that is located in the southeastern United States. This ridge is a little stronger than what was originally forecast.  In addition, convection in the storm relocated the center in a southwesterly direction.  Therefore, “the cone of uncertainty” by NHC has shifted a little further south.

There is still some question as to an exact point of where Tropical Storm Don will make landfall.  It could go in as far north as Baffin Bay and as far south as South Padre Island.  The only thing to do right now is wait and see.  It should make landfall somewhere along the south Texas coastline tonight (Friday evening) between 7pm CDT and midnight Saturday morning.

Figure 2. Current (1:40am CDT) IR satellite image of the Gulf of Mexico showing TS Don that is heading for the South Texas coast on Friday evening.

Possible Threats For RGV:

  • The main threat right now is the storm surge, rip currents, wave heights and coastal flooding.  Regardless where this storm hits, it will create rough seas for people near South Padre Island.  Life threatening waters are in store for the next 2-3 days.
  • The next threat would be the rainfall, depending on where Don makes landfall.  Don could dump as much as 4-6″ of rain in areas, with locally heavier amounts.  This would create urban flood issues for many small towns and busy streets.  Please be aware of streets and areas that are vulnerable to flooding.
  • Another threat is the wind.  Again, depending on how close this storm gets to the RGV and its strength, it will create very gusty winds of 50+ mph at times.  It is very possible for debris to get picked up and thrown around.
  • Finally, certainly not least, the threat for isolated tornadoes is always a threat when dealing with tropical systems.  Although this is the lowest threat for this certain storm, it shouldn’t be taken lightly.  Tornadoes are very hard to forecast, especially in a tropical system.  The convective storm cells that are produced in a tropical system are usually fast moving and come without much of a warning.  Please be aware of rotating cells and report any funnel clouds and tornadoes to the NWS Brownsville.

About Brian

University of Oklahoma graduate with a degree in Meteorology. Follow me on Twitter: @WeatherInformer
This entry was posted in Weather and tagged , . Bookmark the permalink.

Leave a Reply

Fill in your details below or click an icon to log in:

WordPress.com Logo

You are commenting using your WordPress.com account. Log Out / Change )

Twitter picture

You are commenting using your Twitter account. Log Out / Change )

Facebook photo

You are commenting using your Facebook account. Log Out / Change )

Google+ photo

You are commenting using your Google+ account. Log Out / Change )

Connecting to %s