Emily is no longer classified a tropical storm (see reasons in my previous post), or even a cyclone according to the National Hurricane Center. Movement over the mountains of Hispaniola has weakened Emily down to a tropical wave (area of low pressure). As it continues trekking west-northwest, it will come into contact with the eastern part of Cuba, degrading it more, and possibly killing it altogether. Emily is finally beginning to move more in a northwesterly direction, but contact with Cuba may alter its future track, if it doesn’t dissipate. Forecasting models are having a hard time finding the exact center of the storm due to its degrade. Here are the 18Z forecast model tracks for Emily:
Water vapor imagery still show most of Emily’s convection on the eastern side of the center. Intensification is still possible IF it can survive the next 36-48 hours. Residents of Florida should continue monitoring what TC Emily does in the next 24 hours. Even if Emily doesn’t make it back to tropical storm status, flooding could still be a major issue for much of Florida if there is a direct impact from this low pressure system.