Tropical Cyclone Emily Dissipating (8/4/2011)

Emily is no longer classified a tropical storm (see reasons in my previous post), or even a cyclone according to the National Hurricane Center.  Movement over the mountains of Hispaniola has weakened Emily down to a tropical wave (area of low pressure).  As it continues trekking west-northwest, it will come into contact with the eastern part of Cuba, degrading it more, and possibly killing it altogether.  Emily is finally beginning to move more in a northwesterly direction, but contact with Cuba may alter its future track, if it doesn’t dissipate.  Forecasting models are having a hard time finding the exact center of the storm due to its degrade.  Here are the 18Z forecast model tracks for Emily:

Figure 1. 18Z 8/4/2011 forecast model tracks of Emily.

Water vapor imagery still show most of Emily’s convection on the eastern side of the center.  Intensification is still possible IF it can survive the next 36-48 hours.  Residents of Florida should continue monitoring what TC Emily does in the next 24 hours.  Even if Emily doesn’t make it back to tropical storm status, flooding could still be a major issue for much of Florida if there is a direct impact from this low pressure system.

Figure 2. IR satellite imagery showing Emily's center and path

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About Brian

University of Oklahoma graduate with a degree in Meteorology. Follow me on Twitter: @WeatherInformer
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