Remnants of Emily (8/5/2011)

Although Tropical Cyclone Emily dissipated yesterday afternoon, Emily’s remnants are continuing to drop lots of heavy rain over Cuba and the Bahamas.  There is even a significant chance it might redevelop into a tropical depression and even back to a tropical storm in the next 48 hours.  The remnants will be moving into an area with warm waters and minimal wind shear.

The path of this system now looks like it will pass east of Florida, but residents of Florida (as well as those living on the east coast) should continue to monitor this system closely.  Any westerly shift could be the difference from a little rain, to severe flooding.   Here are what the models are thinking:

Figure 1. 12Z 8/5/2011 forecast model paths of the remnants of Emily.

Taking a look at where the Bermuda High is, you can see that the remnants of Emily will be making a turn to the northeast, parallel to the east coast where it will run into a surface front and eventually will transform from a tropical system to an extratropical system.  The Bahama islands can expect heavy rainfall over the next couple of days, especially if Emily reforms in the next 24 hours.

Figure 2. 12Z 8/5/2011 500mb (left) surface analysis (right). Path of Emily shown in yellow. Courtesy of PSU e-wall.

Figure 3. Current surface analysis with fronts. Courtesy of AccuWeather.

About Brian

University of Oklahoma graduate with a degree in Meteorology. Follow me on Twitter: @WeatherInformer
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