Keeping An Eye On The Tropics (8/12/2011)

Figure 1. 2:00pm EDT 8/12/2011 NHC update on tropics.

The National Hurricane Center is monitoring 4 tropical waves that have the potential to develop into a tropical cyclone within the next 2-3 days.  As of right now, none of these systems are a threat to the United States.

System 1, above in red (Invest 95L), will not be a threat to the U.S. at all, as it is moving in a northeast direction and will be merging with a frontal boundary.  Below are spaghetti plots that computer forecasts have for Invest 95.

Figure 2. Invest 95 (60% NHC probability of TC development in the next 48 hours) forecast tracks.


System 2, Invest 92L, has the best potential of becoming a tropical cyclone in the next 48 hours.  Organization has increased over the past few hours.  However, there is still no surface circulation detected.  This tropical wave is forecast to curve east of Bermuda and stay in the open waters over the next 3-5 days.  Spaghetti plots for Invest 92 below.

Figure 3. Invest 92 (50% NHC probability of becoming a TC in the next 48 hours) forecast tracks.

System 3, Invest 93L, will have the biggest impact on the United States in the long run.  The biggest question that remains is how organized/developed will the system be over the course of 5-7 days?  Forecast tracks have it moving west-northwest into the Lesser Antilles, or just north, by Tuesday of next week. Some dynamical forecast models are having a hard time finding a closed circulation at the surface by that time, so it is quite possible that it will either demote to OR remain a tropical wave by then. If this is the case, run in with Lesser Antilles will demote the system even more.  Forecast tracks get kind of shaky after Tuesday, so I will continue monitoring Invest 93L.

Figure 4. Invest 93 (40%....) forecast tracks.


System 4, yellow circle (Invest 94L), is a broad area of low pressure moving in a west-southwest direction right now.  Shear looks to be hindering it from further development.  It is forecast to curve back toward the northeast, and not affect the U.S., in the next 24-48 hours.

Figure 5. Invest 94 (20%....) forecast tracks.


About Brian

University of Oklahoma graduate with a degree in Meteorology. Follow me on Twitter: @WeatherInformer
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