As the remnants of Lee fade, the merging of moist, tropical air from the Gulf of Mexico and cooler air from a surface front will spark off showers and thunderstorms throughout the extreme Southeast today, with an emphasis of severe weather in the Carolinas and Florida. An area between the cold/stationary front and the south/southeasterly flow from the remnants of Lee will create a warm sector boundary, which is where the severe potential will most likely occur. Today’s 1200 UTC Morehead/Newport, NC sounding has MU (most unstable) CAPE values over 3000 J/kg. As diurnal heating occurs, low and mid-level shear should amplify isolated supercells (tornadic thunderstorms). Low and mid-level lapse rates will also be conductive for severe thunderstorms throughout the day and diminish as the sun sets. But, the main threat today will be damaging winds from severe thunderstorms, however, isolated tornadoes cannot be ruled out, especially in the Carolinas and southern Virginia.
As far as Florida, pre-frontal multicellular thunderstorms will be the main concern during the heating of the day, today. Mid-level shear will be at a minimum, but bow echoes embedded in multicelluar storms may cause damaging winds for northern and central Florida.
**Visit the Storm Prediction Center‘s site for more details**