Tropical Storm Nate (Updated 10:00pm CDT, 9/8/2011)

SUMMARY OF 1000 PM CDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...19.7N 92.2W
ABOUT 110 MI...180 KM W OF CAMPECHE MEXICO
ABOUT 175 MI...285 KM NE OF COATZACOALCOS MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...STATIONARY
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...994 MB...29.35 INCHES

Tropical Storm Nate is stationary but will likely begin making a north/northwesterly turn by tomorrow as a ridge builds in the western Caribbean Sea.  Models are starting to come together in agreement for Nate’s future track.  Most models have the ridge that is currently over northwestern Mexico steer Nate into south-central Mexico by Monday or Tuesday of next week.  However, there are still a couple of models that have Nate get picked up by the mid-level trough that’s over the northern Gulf of Mexico.  This trough is forecast to lift to the northeast and my leave Nate stationary in the western Gulf of Mexico by the end of the weekend.  This is not likely to happen, but will have to monitored it, just in case.

Figure 1. 00Z 9/9/2011 Statistical model paths for Nate.

 

Figure 2. NHC's 10:00pm CDT forecast path for Nate.

About Brian

University of Oklahoma graduate with a degree in Meteorology. Follow me on Twitter: @WeatherInformer
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