Tropical Storm Nate (Updated 2:30pm CDT, 9/8/2011)

SUMMARY OF 100 PM CDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...19.9N 92.4W
ABOUT 125 MI...200 KM W OF CAMPECHE MEXICO
ABOUT 175 MI...285 KM NE OF COATZACOALCOS MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...SE OR 145 DEGREES AT 1 MPH...2 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB...29.53 INCHES

Figure 1. IR satellite image of Tropical Storm Nate

Tropical Storm Nate formed yesterday afternoon.  The National Hurricane Center decided  to skip the depression state because reconnaissance aircraft detected maximum sustained winds of 40kts (~45mph) near its center.

There is still some uncertainty of where Nate will be going, but models are beginning to come to a consensus.  Here is why models are having so much trouble:

Figure 2. Mid-level pattern in the atmosphere.

Nate’s path strictly depends on what the upper-level ridge (H) does over Mexico.  If it weakens, Nate will take a more northerly approach and might even get caught up in the upper-level trough (L).  If the ridge stays fairly strong, it will take a more westerly approach and make landfall somewhere near or south of Tampico, Mexico.   There is still a lot of dry air (orange and red colors) over northern Mexico and south Texas.  Therefore, even if Nate strikes 100-150 miles south of Texas, it will bring little to no rainfall for Texas unless there is a change in flow in the upper-levels.

Here are what the statistical models show.  Each line represents a different model (solution).

Figure 3. Today's 18Z statistical model output.

 

1:00 pm CDT National Hurricane Center’s forecast track:

About Brian

University of Oklahoma graduate with a degree in Meteorology. Follow me on Twitter: @WeatherInformer
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