SUMMARY OF 100 PM CDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...19.9N 92.4W ABOUT 125 MI...200 KM W OF CAMPECHE MEXICO ABOUT 175 MI...285 KM NE OF COATZACOALCOS MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...SE OR 145 DEGREES AT 1 MPH...2 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB...29.53 INCHES
Tropical Storm Nate formed yesterday afternoon. The National Hurricane Center decided to skip the depression state because reconnaissance aircraft detected maximum sustained winds of 40kts (~45mph) near its center.
There is still some uncertainty of where Nate will be going, but models are beginning to come to a consensus. Here is why models are having so much trouble:
Nate’s path strictly depends on what the upper-level ridge (H) does over Mexico. If it weakens, Nate will take a more northerly approach and might even get caught up in the upper-level trough (L). If the ridge stays fairly strong, it will take a more westerly approach and make landfall somewhere near or south of Tampico, Mexico. There is still a lot of dry air (orange and red colors) over northern Mexico and south Texas. Therefore, even if Nate strikes 100-150 miles south of Texas, it will bring little to no rainfall for Texas unless there is a change in flow in the upper-levels.
Here are what the statistical models show. Each line represents a different model (solution).
1:00 pm CDT National Hurricane Center’s forecast track: