Tropical Update (9/10/2011)

Figure 1. Atlantic basin overview from the NHC as of 3:40pm CDT.

The tropics are looking active as the peak of hurricane season is in full swing.  Tropical Storm Nate is in the Bay of Campeche and will be making landfall in the next 18-24 hours as it continues moving west-southwest towards the coast of Mexico.  Tropical Storm Maria is just east of Puerto Rico, producing lots of rain for the northern parts of the Lesser Antilles.  Katia is now a tropical depression as it continues to move northeast into open and colder waters, away from land.

NATE

SUMMARY OF 400 PM CDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...20.1N 94.6W
ABOUT 120 MI...195 KM ENE OF VERACRUZ MEXICO
ABOUT 190 MI...310 KM ESE OF TUXPAN MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...999 MB...29.50 INCHES

Nate is a relatively small storm compared to others that have formed this year.  There is finally some decent structure to Nate and convection isn’t just compacted around its center.  Nate will continue strengthening until it makes landfall.  Making hurricane status still isn’t out of question. In fact, the National Hurricane Center believes it will make hurricane status right before landfall tomorrow afternoon.  Hurricane warnings and tropical storm watches are in effect for parts of Mexico:

Figure 2. 4:00pm CDT NHC's forecast track for Nate.

MARIA

SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...17.9N 62.4W
ABOUT 50 MI...75 KM ESE OF ST. MARTIN
ABOUT 245 MI...395 KM E OF SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 310 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES

Maria’s center is southwest of all of its convection.  Westerly shear continues to affect Maria and will prevent it from becoming a hurricane anytime soon.  Maria will continue moving west-northwest and will be rounding the Bermuda High and will also be influenced by mid-level trough that will be sweeping through the east coast by the middle and end of next week.  This should keep Maria parallel and at a distance from the east coast, though the effects may still be felt from wave heights and maybe a few rainbands.

Figure 3. 4:00pm CDT NHC's forecast track of Maria.

NEW TROPICAL WAVE

Figure 4.

The National Hurricane Center has circled another area for concern (Figure 1 & 4).  It has a 10% chance of developing into a tropical cyclone in the next 48 hours.  Right now, there is only some convection associated with this wave, but will need to be monitored, as it is in an area for further development.

About Brian

University of Oklahoma graduate with a degree in Meteorology. Follow me on Twitter: @WeatherInformer
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