Rain For Texas (9/14/2011)

Figure1. Texas drought as of September 6, 2011. A new update will be released tomorrow.

100% of Texas remains in some sort of drought.  In the figure above, you can see that about 81% of Texas is under the worst possible drought conditions (exceptional, D4) according to the U.S. Drought Monitor.  This is the worst it has been in Texas, dating back to the year 2000, when U.S. Drought Monitor first kept records online. Updates are released every Thursday.

It finally looks as if Texas will finally get to see some rain over the next 3-5 days, though not nearly enough to put a dent in the drought.

Figure 2. Surface analysis from 2100 UTC 9/14/2011

Taking a look at surface analysis (above), there is a cold front draped across northern Texas.  This is providing not only some cooler temperatures, but also some lift for showers and thunderstorms.  This front will be sinking further south over the next 24 hours and then it will become stationary across south-central Texas and begin to lift back north as the high pressure over the Northern Plains moves eastward.  Extreme south Texas will likely miss out on most of the rain and temperature drops that this front will produce.  The good news is that the mid-level ridge that has been dominating Texas’ weather this summer will flatten out and won’t be nearly as strong.  This means that afternoon high temperatures will struggle to reach 100 degrees; north Texas may not even get out of the 80s tomorrow and Friday.

Here is what the Hydrometeorological Prediction Center is forecasting for rainfall over the next 5 days (accumulated):

Figure 3. HPC's accumulated quantitative precipitation forecast (QPF) for the entire U.S. over the next 5 days (tonight-September 19).

Most of the rain that falls because of this cold front will be in western and northern Texas, but cooler temperatures will be felt all over the state.  I’d like to add that HPC isn’t taking account for local downpours. Therefore, the map above is a very general and broad forecast.  Local areas may receive much more than what HPC is predicting.


About Brian

University of Oklahoma graduate with a degree in Meteorology. Follow me on Twitter: @WeatherInformer
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One Response to Rain For Texas (9/14/2011)

  1. Debbie says:

    Praying for rain in Texas!

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