A Random Thought

Thought I’d do something different for a change.  I was watching some videos of tornadoes on YouTube, when I saw a comment from someone who said that people were idiots living in an area where so many tornadoes form.  Now, I take most comments from YouTube with a grain of salt.  Most of the time people just comment because they can; and they feel like they can express themselves without consequences.  However, this comment got me thinking of the probabilities of your house/apartment/building getting hit by a tornado.  So, like anyone else, I turned to Google for the search.  I stumbled upon an article written by, none other than, Chuck Doswell.  Dr. Doswell is widely known meteorologist, known for his research and forecasting.  In this article, he discusses the probability of your house being hit by a violent (F4 or F5).

You can read his article here: http://www.flame.org/~cdoswell/tor_probs/vtornado_prob.html

Just to give you a summary, he estimates the square miles of the lower 48 states, then he estimates the the square miles of an average house in the U.S.  He then gives a couple of scenarios of violent tornado events and gives probabilities based on those events versus square miles of an average house.  He believes the chances of your house getting hit by an EF-4 or EF-5 tornado ranges from 1 in 10 million to 3 in 10 million. In other words, not likely.

Getting back to my original thought (other than the fact that YouTube commentators type faster than they think), I wonder what the probabilities are for any tornado (EF-0 to EF-5) striking your house.  Not that I want it to; I hope one never does.  However, it’s probably not enough to convince me not to move into tornado ally.

Comments are welcome.


About Brian

University of Oklahoma graduate with a degree in Meteorology. Follow me on Twitter: @WeatherInformer
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