Next Chance For Rain Update (3/8/2012)

There is still some uncertainty in the mid and upper levels of the atmosphere as to what this digging trough/upper-level low will do.

Currently, a closed low sits over the 4-corners of the U.S, with an associated, amplified trough.  Forecast models have been at ends as to what this trough/low will do over the next few days, but they are finally coming to some sort of agreement.  The NAM has the low moving east and then stalling over NM/TX border, late Friday night.  It then has the closed low retrograding (moving westerly) Friday afternoon.  This will create a secondary shortwave trough, that splits off, by mid-day Saturday.  By Sunday morning, the closed low will be over KS, while the secondary short wave trough is over central Mexico.  Both the GFS and EURO models are similar to NAM.  However, both models have weakened the secondary shortwave trough from previous run over the week.

At the surface, a cold front will be making its way through the Valley Friday morning, between 3am and 9am, with significantly cooler temperatures.  Currently, the cold front is draped from the panhandle of TX, through western OK and extreme southeastern KS.  Shower and even a few thunderstorm are possible with the passing of the front early Friday morning.  Showers should last into the afternoon and evening hours Friday, depending on location and strength of the secondary shortwave trough.  In fact, showers are still possible through Saturday afternoon if the shortwave hasn’t passed through the area.

In summary, look forward to warm and windy conditions on Thursday (3/8).  Friday morning (3/9), a cold front will pass through the Valley, dropping temperature into the 50s all day.  Temperatures don’t rise much for Saturday (3/10), due to cloud cover and possibly rain showers, with temperatures in the upper 50s or lower 60s.

About Brian

University of Oklahoma graduate with a degree in Meteorology. Follow me on Twitter: @WeatherInformer
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