Severe Weather Threat for April 6, 2012

My severe weather outlook for 4/6/2012.
*NOTE* This is a general, and an unofficial forecast and subject to change.

Tornado Risk: Very Low (possible, but unlikely)
Severe Hail Risk: Low (possible)
Severe Wind Risk: Low (possible)

A short-wave trough, currently located over the western U.S. will slide east and begin lifting north by tomorrow evening.  An associated cold front, as well as a dry line will provide lift and instability for severe thunderstorm development towards late afternoon or early evening.  The only major problem seems to be the dewpoint temperatures.  Dewpoints will be in the upper 40s to lower 50s all along the dryline.  This may limit the severe activity.  Circled above is where I think the greatest risk of severe weather will be, primarily after 21Z.  The greatest threat will wind and hail, but an isolated tornado or two is still possible.

(Not Circled)..There is also a chance of severe weather in southern FL tomorrow morning, ahead of a cold front.  An isolated tornado or two cannot be ruled out, as the atmosphere will be moist and unstable.

NAM 00Z 4/6/2012 0-3km Energy Helicity Index at 03Z 4/7//2012

NAM 00Z 4/6/2012 Surface Dewpoint Temperatures at 00Z 4/7/2012

Forecast Sounding at 03Z for western KS


About Brian

University of Oklahoma graduate with a degree in Meteorology. Follow me on Twitter: @WeatherInformer
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