Severe Weather Threat for April 7, 2012

My severe weather outlook for 4/7/2012.
*NOTE* This is a general, and an unofficial forecast and subject to change

Tornado Risk: Low (possible)
Severe Hail Risk:  Medium (probable)
Severe Wind Risk: Medium (probable)

This area may be a little broad for the severe weather potential.  Surface frontal boundary will be the culprit for the severe weather tomorrow afternoon/evening.  There won’t be much upper-level support, as the mid and upper level short-wave trough will be lifting well north of the area.  However, dewpoint temperatures will range between 50 and 60 degrees, before the cold front passes.  Surface based CAPE will relatively be between 1500-2000 J/kg in this area.  Capping inversion will be in place for much of the area, but should break for most of the area by 00Z, or maybe a little before.  The main concern will be severe hail and wind, but a tornado or two is still possible, with discrete cells .  I would not be surprised if storm system becomes linear by evening hours.

About Brian

University of Oklahoma graduate with a degree in Meteorology. Follow me on Twitter: @WeatherInformer
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