Monday, April 8, 2013 Severe Weather Outlook

Numerical weather models are coming to a consensus with severe storms on Monday. It looks as if the best chance of severe storms will occur in northern OK, northwest OK, and southwest KS after 4 pm CDT. A significant cap should hold off development before 4 pm.  It is very possible that western OK and northwest TX could also see storm development, depending if the capping inversion breaks. However, as stated above, the most likely areas of the cap breaking will be in northwest OK and southwest KS. Dewpoints should be into the 60s by afternoon hours. The atmosphere will have 2000-3000 J/kg CAPE to work with.  Surface-500mb bulk shear values of 50+ knots will also be in place in this area.  After sunset, the low level jet will really kick in.  Once it does, any surface-based storm will really be dangerous, producing very large hail, powerful wind gusts and possibly significant tornadoes.

Here are the 00Z NAM and 00Z GFS hodographs at 00Z Tuesday (7pm CDT Monday) in northwest OK:

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About Brian

University of Oklahoma graduate with a degree in Meteorology. Follow me on Twitter: @WeatherInformer
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