So after the latest numerical model runs, I’ve decided to update my severe weather outlook for this coming week.
Monday, April 15, 2013
Models haven’t changed much in terms of severe weather on Monday. It still looks as if it will be a conditional and isolated severe weather day from northern TX through southern IL. Though, it does appear that eastern OK and southern/central MO will have to best chances at seeing storms through early Tuesday morning. The most unstable air will be from northern TX through northwest AR. Dewpoints will range from lower to middle 60s in this area. Still, a lot of questions remain, including if storms will fire at all in this area. NAM is still quiet for the most part. It develops showers and storms by early afternoon, but by early evening, precipitation is sparse and confined to northeast OK, southeast KS and central MO. GFS does break out a narrow corridor of storms by sunset from northern TX through central MO. EURO, like the NAM, stays relatively quiet until after 10pm Monday night. If GFS is right, conditions will favor supercell thunderstorms, capable of very large hail and very gusty winds. Tornado threat should be minimal, as shear will be moderate, at best and CIN should increase as the sun sets. SPC has a slight risk running from southern OK through southern IL. This will likely be changed as models update and satellite, radar and surface observations are analysed.
Tuesday, April 16, 2013
Tuesday is still up in the air. EURO and GFS are very similar with the mesoscale set up by Tuesday evening. NAM, on the other hand, has the cold front a little farther south than the EURO & GFS. The EURO fires storms along the dryline in western-north TX, around the Wichita Falls area and points southwestward. GFS is similar, but also has storms firing along and north of the cold front Tuesday evening in northern and western OK. Best chance for surface based storms will be in western-north Texas and southwest Oklahoma. The primary threats will be hail and wind, but wouldn’t surprise me if there were one or two tornadic storms before the storms go elevated. And it won’t take long for any surface-based storm to go elevated. Models increase CIN rapidly by 10pm.
Wednesday, April 17, 2013
Wednesday should be a fun day. Cold front will retreat back into northern OK and southern KS as a warm front. This will bring in a lot of WAA that will spark showers and thunderstorms early Wednesday morning in the vicinity of the front. Still some questions on how this early elevated convection will affect surface heating and surface convection later in the day. SPC believes that the morning convection will set up a boundary for the afternoon/evening from southern KS and into OK. Along with daytime heating, this would set off severe thunderstorms in this area. Thus, SPC has issued a “Moderate” risk of severe storms from central OK through southeast KS and into extreme western MO. They are also calling for a possibility of tornadoes with any surface-based storm that forms a head of the cold front. Again, this will highly depend on if surface-based storms develop. Certainly the ingredients will be presents for them to form. This will need to be highly monitored over the next couple of days.