(Blog written at 12:30am CDT 9/11/13)
The National Hurricane Center is monitoring a disorganized complex of thunderstorms, invest 93L, in the western Caribbean Sea, circled in yellow above. As of 12:30am CDT 9/11/13, NHC had a 20% chance of development into a tropical cyclone within 48 hours and 70% of development into a tropical cyclone in the next 5 days. Most of the forecast models do develop a tropical cyclone, once this system enters the Bay of Campeche (Gulf of Mexico). However, each model differs on the exact location and intensity of the storm once it does enter the Gulf of Mexico. The GFS model seems to be the most aggressive model so far, blowing the storm up to at least tropical storm status and making landfall somewhere between Brownsville, Texas and Tampico, Mexico. Regardless of what this storm does, it will bring lots of rainfall for northern Mexico, the Rio Grande Valley, and south Texas over the next 5-7 days.
Some hazards will include flooding, obviously. The brunt of the rainfall will be in the north, northeast and east side of this storm, according to the forecast models. Damaging winds will be another concern, but mostly in and around the center of circulation of the disturbance, unless it does strengthen. If the storm gets strong enough, storm surge will be a threat to the coast. Finally, waterspouts and tornadoes are always a possibility with tropical systems. Hard to tell, right now, where the most dangerous conditions will be, since landfall is still 4-6 days away.
The above image shows 3 possible tracks that invest 93L could take. Of course, it will be monitored over the next few days. There is still a slight possibility that a cyclone may not develop at all. Heavy rain is still possible for south Texas, even if one doesn’t develop. I will be sure to keep my blog updated if there are any important updates.