Here is the latest from NHC as of 11:00 pm EDT on T.S. Harvey:
LOCATION...16.2N 85.2W ABOUT 95 MI...150 KM E OF ISLA ROATAN HONDURAS ABOUT 220 MI...350 KM ESE OF BELIZE CITY MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 275 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...994 MB...29.35 INCHES
It looks as if T.S. Harvey may be the first hurricane in the 2011 Atlantic hurricane season, instead of what is now Invest 97L. Though Harvey will be making landfall within the next 12-18 hours, it is forecast to strengthen to a minimal hurricane status before coming ashore in the country of Belize. A storm is considered a hurricane if maximum sustained winds are at least 74 mph. Over the past 6-12 hours, it has strengthened quite a bit, and continues to strengthen. At 11:00 am EDT (12 hours before most recent update), Harvey had maximum sustained winds at 35 mph, with a minimum central pressure of 1005mb. The storm now (11:00 pm EDT 8/19/2011) has max sustained winds of 60 mph with a minimum central pressure of 994mb. The southern side of the storm is already affecting Honduras, but as long as the center of the storm is over water, it will continue to strengthen. Forecast models are at a consensus that Harvey will move in a west-northwest direction, even after landfall.
Figure 1. Tropical Storm Harvey's spaghetti plots (forecast models). These are different solutions of tracks that computer models say Harvey will go.
Figure 2. NHC's forecast track for Tropical Storm Harvey. Harvey could reach hurricane status before making landfall in Belize.
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