VALLEY/NATION FORECAST(5/7/2011)

RIO GRANDE VALLEY:

Valley high and low temperature for 5/7:

Brownsville:  90/72
Harlingen:  93/71
McAllen:  94/73
Weslaco:  91/72
South Padre Island:  84/75
Edinburg:  95/74

Valley Forecast: Next 3 Days

The south-southeast winds and heat are back in the Valley once again.  I really don’t see any change to this pattern over the next few days.  Expect humid, breezy to windy conditions, and hot temperatures to persist over the next 5-10 days.  The La Nina effects are still being felt and probably won’t change, at least not for a few more weeks. For tonight, expect low level clouds to return as the night progresses, with low temperatures in the middle to upper 70s.  Winds will be out of the south-southeast around 15-20 mph.  No rain expected over the next 3 days.

5/8/2011:  Mother’s day will be much of the same as today, with slightly gustier winds.  High temperatures will range from middle 80s along the coast to upper 90s in the upper Valley.  Morning clouds will break for a mixture of sun and clouds in the afternoon.  Winds will be out of the SE/SSE at  15-25 mph (with higher gusts).  It will be humid, especially during the early morning hours and in the evening.  Evening lows will be in the middle to upper 70s once again, under cloudy skies.  Happy Mother’s Day!

5/9/2011:   It seems Monday will be a repeat of Sunday.  Winds will be out of the SSE at 15-25 mph (with higher gusts), with morning clouds breaking for a mixture of sun and clouds in the afternoon.  High temperatures will range from middle 80s along the coast to upper 90s and perhaps triple digit heat in Starr County.  Low temperatures during the evening will be once again be muggy and mild under cloudy skies.  Winds will die down some during the evening, but not drastically.

5/10/2011:  Wish I had better or even different news for Tuesday, temperatures may even be warmer for many places. Winds will remain out of the SE/SSE around 10-20 mph.  High temperatures will be in the 90s for most areas in the Valley.  Tuesday’s lows will be in the middle to upper 70s once again, with low level clouds thickening up during the evening.

Edinburg’s 3-Day Forecast 

Figure 1. Edinburg's 3-Day Forecast. Issued 5/7/2011

National Discussion:

Showers and thunderstorms over the Midwest are a result of a shortwave trough pushing through over Illinois and Indiana.  In association with the shortwave trough, a surface warm front is also aiding with the precipitation.  The severe weather has already spawned at least one tornado in Illinois.  This system will move southeast over the night and then the day tomorrow.

Another shortwave trough is causing precipitation to fall over North Dakota.

Right now, there is an upper level trough (at 250mb)  over western Canada.  Winds upstream of the trough axis are stronger than those downstream of the axis, which means that this trough will continue digging into the western United States over the next 48 to 72 hours.  GFS does indeed have the 250mb trough digging and forming a closed low over the Nevada region by Monday afternoon. A well defined trough and low at 500mb is also visible in the western CONUS by Monday evening.  This system will continue moving north and east throughout the week, bring a chance of severe weather for northern TX, central and western OK, and central and western KS, as these areas will be just east of the trough axis on Wednesday.  A surface low will deepen east of the Rocky Mtns and begin moving northeast.  A trailing cold front will extend from eastern NE through western TX by Tuesday morning, sparking off showers and thunderstorms near the low, and along the cold front by Wednesday and Thursday.  The Storm Prediction Center has already marked Wednesday as a potential for severe weather for TX, OK, and KS.

About Brian

University of Oklahoma graduate with a degree in Meteorology. Follow me on Twitter: @WeatherInformer
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